The Syrian army lacked friends, were underequipped, and had low morale. The rebels seized the opportunity because they knew it was theirs.Despite 13 years of fighting, the Syrian rebels were unable to overthrow Bashar al-Assad’s government.
The Assad family’s five-decade dominance was then wiped out in a lightning onslaught that lasted less than 13 days, forcing the president to leave the nation. Careful preparation, the shifting Middle Eastern power dynamics, and the unspoken support of a significant regional actor all contributed to the rebels’ startling advance.
The Moment
The Assad regime was at its weakest, and the rebels knew it. The Syrian president has repressed any opposition to his government during the last ten years by using the military might of its main allies, Iran and Russia. However, Tehran was engaged in combat with Israel, while Moscow was preoccupied with its conflict in Ukraine. Damascus was completely exposed as Assad’s supporters were diverted. Additionally, Tel Aviv killed its leader Hassan Nasrallah and a number of other commanders, severely harming Hezbollah, which was instrumental in Assad’s campaign against the rebels.
Hezbollah nursed its wounds and declined to fight Assad’s battle with rebels after a ceasefire struck Lebanon on November 27. Syria was dealing with internal problems as well. According to a source who spoke to news agency Reuters, widespread corruption and looting had left tanks and aircraft without gasoline. Many Syrians fled to Lebanon because they did not want to fight their fellow citizens, according to those Syrians who celebrated the overthrow of the Assad regime. As a result, the Syrian military lacked allies, were underequipped, and had low morale. The rebels seized the opportunity because they knew it was theirs.
The Role of Turkey
At a conference in Bahrain, Turkey’s deputy foreign minister, Nuh Yilmaz, claimed that Ankara was not responsible for the offensive and did not provide its approval as the Assad regime fell. It was worried about instability, he added.
However, a signal from Turkey would not have allowed the rebels to proceed. According to two sources who spoke to Reuters, the rebels warned Ankara about six months ago that they intended to launch a significant attack and believed they had its implicit agreement. Although it views Hayat Tahrir al-Sham (HTS), the rebel alliance’s primary force, as a terrorist organization, Turkey has long supported the Syrian opposition.
Abu Mohammed al-Golani, the leader of HTS, is said to have been the driving force behind the full-scale onslaught. HTS began as the al-Qaeda-affiliated Nusra Front. A number of nations, including the US, UK, and Turkey, have classified Golani as a terrorist. However, he and his organization have worked to improve its reputation during the last ten years.
Questions from Reuters regarding whether HTS and Ankara had reached an agreement over the Aleppo operation have not received a direct response from Turkey’s foreign or defense ministries. Reuters was informed by a Turkish official that HTS “does not receive orders or direction from us (and) does not coordinate its operations with us either.” According to the official, “in that sense” it would be incorrect to claim that Turkey approved of the operation in Aleppo.
The Interests of Ankara
Turkey has seen a surge in refugees as a result of the Syrian conflict, which has also become a domestic problem. It has long called for a political solution to the issue from the once-close friend Bashar al-Assad regime, but has received little reaction. This was viewed as a vulnerability by Damascus, which demanded that Turkish forces leave Syria entirely. Ankara did not have this choice because it was concerned that it might result in an additional refugee flood. The final straw was then pulled by Moscow. “Too soon” for discussions between Ankara and Damascus, Russia’s special envoy to Syria, Alexander Lavrentiev, referred to Turkey as a “occupying force” in Syria.
The rebels believed that Damascus’ rejection of their outreach was a sign that the Recep Tayyip Erdogan administration was not pleased. Following the failure of Ankara’s attempts to engage Assad, the rebels showed Turkey specifics of the plans, a Syrian opposition source told Reuters. “Try ours; that other path hasn’t worked for years,” was the message. Don’t interfere; you don’t need to do anything.”
Turkey has cause for relief as the regime changes in Damascus. In addition to helping it crush the opposition from organizations like the YPG, with whom it has been at odds for years, its tacit support for the rebels may open the door for border peace.
Turkey currently anticipates that a peaceful Syria will foster an environment that will allow refugees to return. However, there is a chance that Ankara would face yet another refugee catastrophe if the fall of the Bashar al-Assad regime triggers a new phase of unrest.
Another Victory for Israel
Israel has also benefited from the overthrow of the Bashar al-Assad government. The path via which Iran supplied Hezbollah in Lebanon with weapons has been stopped by the regime transition in Damascus. Now, Tel Aviv can successfully destroy Hezbollah, which is already weak. Following the rebels’ capture of Damascus, Israeli Air Force fighter jets quickly destroyed weapons that they believed would end up in the hands of the rebels by hitting dozens of targets around Syria, according to the Times of Israel. Benjamin Netanyahu, the prime minister, has hailed the shift in Syria as a historic day. He added that its campaign against Hezbollah had a key role in the overthrow of the Syrian government.
Our strong action against Assad’s principal backers, Iran and Hezbollah, is directly responsible for this collapse. All those who aspire to be free of this oppression and its repression were triggered by it. However, it also means that we must act to counter potential risks. Among these is the breakdown of the 1974 Separation of Forces pact between Syria and Israel. For fifty years, this agreement was in effect. “It collapsed last night,” he remarked.
A demilitarized buffer zone on Israel’s Syrian border is currently under Israeli control. “Until a suitable arrangement is discovered, this is a temporary defensive stance. We’re going to pay close attention to what happens. We would like to build peaceful and neighborly ties with the new forces that are forming in Syria. But if we don’t, we’ll stop at nothing to protect Israel’s border and the State of Israel,” Netanyahu declared.
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