Prolonged Dry Spell Raises Concerns Over Winter Crops
The winter season in India has seen an unusual dry spell, with 89% of districts experiencing either very low rainfall or none at all between January 1 and February 10, 2025. According to the India Meteorological Department (IMD), the weak western disturbances have failed to bring the expected precipitation, posing a serious threat to rabi (winter) crops in several regions.
How Western Disturbances Influence Winter Rainfall in India?
Winter rainfall in North and Central India is primarily influenced by Western Disturbances (WDs). These weather systems originate over the Mediterranean Sea, absorb moisture, and travel across Iran, Afghanistan, and Pakistan before reaching India. The rain and snowfall associated with these disturbances are crucial for agriculture, water reservoirs, and overall climate stability.
More Western Disturbances but Less Rainfall – Why?
Despite the fact that seven Western Disturbances were recorded in January 2025—a figure higher than the average of 5-6 disturbances per month—most of them lacked sufficient moisture. As a result, they failed to produce significant precipitation.
- Four consecutive WDs were active between January 16 and 23, yet they remained ineffective.
- The only impactful WD was recorded between January 9 and 13, leading to light rainfall in Delhi, northwestern, and central India.
- The absence of adequate moisture in these systems led to a severe decline in rainfall and snowfall, as confirmed by the IMD report.
Severe Rain Deficiency Across Major Indian States
The ongoing dry spell has affected several states, with some receiving no rainfall at all. The worst-hit regions include:
- Uttar Pradesh: 21 out of 75 districts recorded zero rainfall.
- Maharashtra: 35 out of 36 districts remained completely dry.
- Gujarat: A key rabi crop-producing state faced severe drought-like conditions.
- Bihar: 32 out of 38 districts received no rainfall, while the remaining recorded very low precipitation.
- Telangana, Chhattisgarh, Odisha, and Mizoram: No rainfall recorded in the entire state during this period.
- Uttarakhand, Himachal Pradesh, and Jammu & Kashmir: These states, which typically rely on snowfall and winter rains, reported a 60-99% rainfall deficit across all districts.
Potential Impact on Rabi Crops and Agriculture
The lack of winter rainfall could severely impact rabi crops, including wheat, mustard, barley, chickpeas, and lentils. Experts warn that if the dry spell continues, it could lead to:
✔ Lower soil moisture levels, affecting crop growth.
✔ Reduced wheat yields, as winter rain plays a crucial role in grain development.
✔ Water scarcity for irrigation, putting additional pressure on farmers.
✔ Potential rise in food prices due to lower agricultural production.
What’s Next? IMD’s Prediction for the Coming Weeks
The India Meteorological Department (IMD) has indicated that another Western Disturbance could approach by mid-February, but it remains uncertain whether it will bring significant rainfall. If the dry conditions persist, the agricultural output and water resources across multiple states could face a major crisis.
Farmers and policymakers are closely monitoring the weather developments, hoping for much-needed precipitation in the remaining winter months.
Key Takeaways
✅ 89% of Indian districts recorded very low or no rainfall from January 1 to February 10
✅ Despite 7 Western Disturbances, most remained ineffective due to lack of moisture
✅ States like Uttar Pradesh, Bihar, Maharashtra, and Gujarat are facing extreme drought-like conditions
✅ Rabi crops, especially wheat, are at high risk due to reduced soil moisture
✅ IMD predicts a possible Western Disturbance in mid-February, but its impact remains uncertain
Stay tuned for further updates on the changing weather conditions and their impact on agriculture.
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